Happ to Manuel: Demote This

Can't touch this. J.A. don't hurt 'em!

With the acquisition of Cliff Lee and the progress of Pedro Martinez’s rehab (more on that later), the Phillies are facing one of the best problems a baseball team can have- too many viable starting pitchers. There have been indications that rookie lefthander J.A. Happ may be the odd man out.

After tonight, Uncle Cholly might want to rethink that. Happ tossed his second complete game shutout of the season against the Rockies. He struck out 10, including Troy Tulowitzki three times and Brad Hawpe twice, while allowing four hits and walking just two. He’s now 8-2 on the season, with a 2.74 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Rotographs posted an in-depth look at Happ’s performance about three weeks ago. It echoed my own sentiments, which I’ve expressed repeatedly to fellow Phillies fans in discussion: Happ is solid, but he is not an ace.

Look, I’ve been a Happ supporter  for a long time. I was advocating him for a rotation slot a year ago. I was one of a vast minority of fans who thought that Ruben Amaro would have been better served letting him replace Jamie Moyer, rather than giving the latter a second year on his new deal. I was apoplectic when Chan Ho Park, who hadn’t been a successful starter since, roughly, the Second World War, was awarded the fifth starter job out of spring training. Park predictably stunk up the joint and was inexplicably allowed to keep his spot in the rotation until the middle of May. Finally, mercifully, he was banished to the bullpen, where he’s always belonged and where he’s been pretty effective. Happ took the job and ran with it, doing better than even his staunchest supporter (ahem) expected.

A funny thing’s happened over the course of the season, though- Happ has gotten better. After a pair of awful interleague starts, he sported an FIP around 5, a 1.26 HR/9 and a cringeworthy 4.42 BB/9. His traditional numbers were solid, but more advanced metrics foretold dark days; the aforementioned numbers and a BABIP hovering around .220 spelled doom, or at least a considerable regression.

Eight starts is still a pretty small sample size, but even taken with a grain of salt, Happ’s improvement is notable. In those 58 innings, or almost exactly half his season total, Happ has cut his homer rate in half, shaved three walks per game off his average and upped his strikeout rate for good measure. This has helped him avoid a regression as his BABIP has begun to normalize. Whereas luck had been on his side for most of the season, the start against the Cardinals was at the other end of the spectrum- he gave up 10 hits, many of them of the bloop variety, in his first loss of the season. While both the BABIP and his strand rate are still likely unsustainable, his improved command should continue to help him weather the storm, so to speak.

Right now, the rotation is Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, Moyer and Happ. Rodrigo Lopez came on in relief of Moyer in last night’s loss to the Rockies, and though he pitched relatively well in his five starts, he was always going to be the first casualty of any roster adjustments. He may find a spot in the bullpen, but it’ll get crowded down there as the banged-up relief corps gets healthy. If Lopez is designated for assignment, don’t expect him to make it through waivers.

That’s a nice rotation. Lee looked fantastic in his Phils debut last week, Blanton’s been straight money for two months (not to toot my own horn, but I told you so), Hamels will be fine and Moyer’s been pitching better lately, last night’s clunker notwithstanding. Four lefties…eh. It ain’t exactly conventional, but it’s better than having John Ennis start for you in a pennant race. Besides, as this article shows, it’s not that big a deal.

Enter the monkey wrench known as Pedro Martinez. The Phillies signed him last month as an insurance policy and/or an attempt to catch lightning in a bottle. For $1 million, it was a savvy pickup by Amaro, especially when you consider that Martinez is willing to pitch out of the bullpen. There are incentives in his contract for both starting and relieving, and it’s not a stretch to imagine him being useful in either role.

While Happ was mowing down hitters at Citizens Bank Park, Martinez was pitching well an hour north for Double-A Reading in what could be his final rehab start. He surrendered three runs on five hits in six innings to the Yankees’ Trenton affiliate, but also struck out 11, including nine in the first four frames, and didn’t walk a batter. His command was spot on- he threw first-pitch strikes to 18 of the 23 batters he faced and threw 60 of his 82 pitches for strikes- and he looked “overall…free and easy,” according to an Associated Press report. While Martinez has allowed seven earned runs in just 12 1/3 innings, they’ve come on only nine hits.

So, what do we know? Lee, Hamels and Blanton (2.33 ERA since May 21, FYI) aren’t going anywhere. Those three are also locks for the playoff rotation, barring injury and/or a Mets-like collapse. That leaves Happ, Moyer and Martinez playing musical chairs with only two seats.

I’ve seen two camps when it comes to Moyer. The first, which constitutes a majority of Phillies fans I’ve talked to, are hellbent on kicking Moyer out of the rotation. The second is a vocal minority, pointing out that he’s been solid since his nightmare start to the year. For what it’s worth, Moyer’s put up a respectable 4.31 ERA and 1.30 WHIP since his four-game losing streak in May. But he has to be considered the weak link in the rotation right now, if only because games like last night’s are all too frequent for him. It was the 10th time in 21 starts that he’s given up four or more runs in five innings or less, and four of those have come in his last seven games.

So it’s settled, then. Slide Pedro into Moyer’s slot and everyone lives happily ever after. Why did I just spend a thousand words on this again?

Oh, right. Because it’s not that simple. The ostensible motivation for moving Happ back to the bullpen, beyond fear of non-traditional thinking, is that Happ has proven he can succeed as a reliever. Moyer, in his 127-year career, has made a grand total of 53 relief appearances. The last time he came into a game after it had started, Bill Clinton was in the White House and people still cared about Beanie Babies. Besides, have you ever tried asking an old person to change something? They don’t take too kindly to it. Plus, what happens if a game goes to extra innings? By then, Moyer will have had his warm glass of milk and passed out.

Seriously though, a switch to reliever probably wouldn’t go too well for reasons beyond his age. There simply isn’t much of a role for soft-tossers in the bullpen. The article I referenced earlier about having a lefty-heavy rotation shows that Moyer doesn’t really have a traditional platoon split, so using him as a LOOGY is out. Demoting Moyer to the bullpen now would also basically guarantee that he’d be left out of the playoff rotation, and very possibly off the roster altogether. As far as non-baseball considerations go, the organization might be a little hesitant to issue what is essentially an ultimatum to Moyer. He was a key cog in last season’s championship run, even if his playoff performances weren’t so hot, and you have to respect the man for pitching this long. Finally, he looks a lot like William Russ, who played the coolest dad in television history on Boy Meets World. Would you want to be the one to upset Mr. Matthews? Of course not.

Ultimately, I think the right move is leaving the rotation as is and putting Pedro in the ‘pen. Again, the southpaw volume is not a tremendous concern, but Martinez’s stamina is. He’s been a six-inning pitcher for several years now, and given that he hasn’t thrown a meaningful pitch since the World Baseball Classic, there’s no telling how effective he’d actually be in a starting role. Still, if his velocity is there, he could flourish in the middle innings or as a long reliever. The question remains what the team will do with Moyer once the playoffs begin, but there’s a lot of baseball left to be played before we can answer that.

UPDATE: Amaro announced Thursday morning that Happ will keep his job. He hinted at the use of a six-man rotation, but I’m not certain that’s the best option. If Moyer’s the odd man out, he could be outright released; with $6.5 million owed to him next season, it’s almost certain there’s no trade market for him. I think he’d go to the bullpen if asked, but that’s not really the issue here.