I moved back to Pittsburgh not long after the last post, and my various activities there kept me too busy to maintain this blog. I’ve returned to the Philly area for a few weeks before I hit the road again; this time, I’m headed to North Carolina. Hopefully the job market treats me better there. Actually, that was part of the reason for starting this blog. I had hopes of making multiple posts every day to build up a nice little portfolio and demonstrate consistency, all with the eventual goal of joining an established blog that paid its writers, or at least had a lot of traffic.

Oops.

Not all is lost, however. Plans have been in place for a while for me to join forces with my online buddy Chris, who’s blogged for The Fightins in addition to his own site, Phillies Long Drive. There have been a few snags, but hopefully we’ll have that up and running by spring training (only six weeks away!). I’m not definitely discontinuing this blog yet, but if the other takes off, I doubt much will be happening on this front. Hell, I’ve already demonstrated my inability to maintain one blog, let alone two.

I’m currently working on a comprehensive evaluation of Ruben Amaro’s tenure as general manager. It may be posted here, or I might keep it in the pipe until I head over to the other site. In the interim, I’ll probably post about any news that comes up, although things are obviously quiet at the moment.

As ever, ESPN is happy to oblige. For your consideration, Buck Showalter’s piece on this weekend’s series with the Braves:

One thing that has been an obvious cause for the resurgence of the Atlanta Braves recently and for the overall steady play of the Philadelphia Phillies this season — pitching.

Steady play? The Phillies started June with a seven-game winning streak, dropped six straight and nine of 10 towards the end of the month, won 10 straight coming into and going out of the All-Star Break, and started this month in a 1-5 stretch. They were 11-15 in June and 20-7 in July. They are a streaky team. Good, but streaky. Besides which, their success in the first two months, when they actually were playing “steadily,” I guess, was not their pitching. As late as May 23 the best ERA in their rotation was 4.34 and three of the five members had ERAs over 7. Joe Blanton, Chan Ho Park and Jamie Moyer gave up something like 740 runs in the first six weeks of the season.

If Atlanta is going to continue to surprise and pull off a true Cinderella season, it is going to have to match arms with other teams down the stretch.

Back in March, PECOTA projected 86 wins for the Braves. Know how many wins they projected for the Phillies? 86. Now, PECOTA is not the last word by any means, and some of this year’s projections have ended up looking sportswriter-level bad…but since it’s pretty much the only system in the world that saw the Rays coming last year, it’s probably earned some credit. The point is, Atlanta should not really be surprising anyone. They upgraded their rotation significantly over the winter after finishing seven games below their Pythagorean win-loss. That team went 11-30 (!) in one-run games, which is like, Nationals-esque. Their lineup is still kind of crappy, which is why they needed a five game winning streak to escape hovering around .500, but they did pick up Nate McLouth and Ryan Church in-season.

If I were going to point out a “Cinderella team” or whatever for this season, I’d probably go with the Rangers or Rockies, a couple of teams that absolutely no one thought would do anything. Maybe the Giants, or the Mariners. Not the Braves. For fuck’s sake, even a couple of your colleagues figured the Braves could  snag a wild-card berth.

Being six games back in the loss column to the Phillies here in mid-August tells me that it’s time for the Braves to make their move.

Being six games back in the loss column to the Phillies in mid-August tells me that the Braves are probably not as good as the Phillies. I seriously doubt that, like, Garret Anderson has been holding back all season long, waiting for this series to hit for the cycle in every game from here on out. I don’t even know if Garret Anderson can make it to third base on a hit anymore without breaking both hips.

Despite the fact that there are some unknowns in that rotation, this team has come to terms with the fact that Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz aren’t coming through that door.

The only guy who actually pitched for the Braves this season was Glavine, and they released him. Smoltz was last seen getting lit up like a Christmas tree for the Red Sox before they DFA’d him. I would imagine that there is a picture of Smoltz up on the clubhouse wall that says “Do not accept offers to pitch from this man,” like they have in grocery stores for people who write bad checks. Maddux is retired and hasn’t pitched for the Braves in six fucking years. You know how many guys were on that 2003 team and are still playing for the Braves? Chipper Jones. That’s how many guys. I am going to guess that a significant portion of the Braves’ current roster has never even met Greg Maddux. They probably came to terms with the fact that he would not be walking through “that door,” whichever door it is, because the idea never occurred to them in the first fucking place.

The Braves are going about the task of developing young arms from within the organization, but that takes time.

You realize that three members of the Braves rotation were free agent signings, right? Two of them, Vazquez and Kawakami, are pitching in this series. The other scheduled starter is Jair Jurrjens, who wasn’t so much developed within the organization as he was acquired in a [brilliant] trade before last season, when he made 31 starts for the big club. Jurrjens has never thrown a single pitch for any of Atlanta’s farm teams. Tommy Hanson is the only starter they drafted and brought up themselves, although he is having a pretty good year.

A lot of people forget that even Maddux and Co. struggled when they were young.

Maddux struggled…with the Cubs. When he came to Atlanta, he was 27 and had just won a Cy Young. Regardless, I’m pretty sure people have not forgotten that those guys struggled initially, since almost all rookie pitchers struggle every season and it’s pretty much expected.

Bobby Cox has surely built them up a bit. Any time you have a winner like Cox writing your name on a major-league lineup card, that has to give you a world of confidence.

Having seen hundreds of Braves games in my life, I have concluded with relative certainty that Bobby Cox is pretty much asleep in the dugout during most of the game. Perhaps this is a necessary part of giving his team confidence; like, maybe he has to be unconscious to spread his calm, confident aura to his players or some shit.

This group won’t be intimidated at all, even if it is facing the World Series champions. They’ll play free and easy.

Actually, they will be playing free and easy because the entire team has decided to go commando in a show of solidarity.

In fact, there’s more pressure on the Phillies. One of the toughest things in sports is to win when you are expected to.

The Phillies are leading the division by 4 1/2 games, 5 over the Braves. Even if they get swept, they will still be winning the division. If the Braves get swept, they can probably forget about catching the Phillies. The onus is on them, I think.

As to the second statement: Maybe. But I’m pretty sure it’s even tougher to win when you don’t have as much talent as the other team does.

Right now, their only real red flag is at closer. Brad Lidge just hasn’t been the same — his ERA is 7.42. That just doesn’t make the closer a red flag; it makes it a big red flag.

Read those  sentences again and try to make them make sense together. Go ahead. I dare you. N.B. that this is one of those dares that it is a very bad idea to take, like when that kid in A Christmas Story got triple-dog-dared to stick his tongue to a frozen pole. You won’t end up with a swollen, bloody tongue, but your brain may begin to leak out your ears.

“[T]heir only real red flag is at closer.”: A fair point, though I’d rather this be a weak point than, say, my cleanup hitter or my ace. Lidge has pitched 10 innings since the break. As bad as he has been, he’s only blown one save in that time and the Phillies won that game anyway. True, it hasn’t been fun to see Lidge go from “Lights Out” to “Jose Mesa 2.0,” but thankfully it hasn’t hurt them too much yet.

“That just doesn’t make the closer a red flag;”: This is a negative statement, i.e. “That just doesn’t make any fucking sense.” What you meant to say was “That doesn’t just make the closer a red flag.” See what a big difference that makes? Buck: The English language can be your friend.

“it makes it a big red flag.“: In direct contradiction to what precedes the semicolon, until it’s corrected. Do ESPN.com’s editors actually do anything? If not, can I have a job? I love getting money for nothing (I also enjoy chicks for free).

All things considered, Atlanta might have an edge this weekend.

So, to recap: Atlanta is a Cinderella team, Cox is a winner who injects confidence directly into his players like a steroid or something, they won’t be intimidated at all by facing a team that is objectively better than they are, and lots of pressure will be on the Phillies…so Atlanta might have an edge this weekend. Maybe. A bold prediction.

They have nothing to lose.

Except baseball games, which: Who gives a fuck?

Cubs 28-18 when Koyie Hill is in the lineup.

Hill: .604 OPS. .268 wOBA. Luck Charm Index: Infinity.

Heard during the eight-run fourth inning:

Tom McCarthy: (referring to a graphic that shows Sean Marshall’s line: 5 ER, 0.1 IP) That’s not going to help his ERA even a little bit.

Gary Matthews: (dramatic pause) That’s not good.

Heard during seventh inning:

Chris Wheeler: Sean Marshall’s given up some runs, but he’s really saved the Cubs bullpen tonight.

Marshall entered the game when it was 5-1 with two men on and one out. He proceeded to give up two three-run homers in the inning, putting the game firmly out of reach. But nice job saving the ‘pen, bro. You’re a champ.

Emmy winning stuff.

I miss Harry more every day.

Can't touch this. J.A. don't hurt 'em!

With the acquisition of Cliff Lee and the progress of Pedro Martinez’s rehab (more on that later), the Phillies are facing one of the best problems a baseball team can have- too many viable starting pitchers. There have been indications that rookie lefthander J.A. Happ may be the odd man out.

After tonight, Uncle Cholly might want to rethink that. Happ tossed his second complete game shutout of the season against the Rockies. He struck out 10, including Troy Tulowitzki three times and Brad Hawpe twice, while allowing four hits and walking just two. He’s now 8-2 on the season, with a 2.74 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Rotographs posted an in-depth look at Happ’s performance about three weeks ago. It echoed my own sentiments, which I’ve expressed repeatedly to fellow Phillies fans in discussion: Happ is solid, but he is not an ace.

Look, I’ve been a Happ supporter  for a long time. I was advocating him for a rotation slot a year ago. I was one of a vast minority of fans who thought that Ruben Amaro would have been better served letting him replace Jamie Moyer, rather than giving the latter a second year on his new deal. I was apoplectic when Chan Ho Park, who hadn’t been a successful starter since, roughly, the Second World War, was awarded the fifth starter job out of spring training. Park predictably stunk up the joint and was inexplicably allowed to keep his spot in the rotation until the middle of May. Finally, mercifully, he was banished to the bullpen, where he’s always belonged and where he’s been pretty effective. Happ took the job and ran with it, doing better than even his staunchest supporter (ahem) expected.

A funny thing’s happened over the course of the season, though- Happ has gotten better. After a pair of awful interleague starts, he sported an FIP around 5, a 1.26 HR/9 and a cringeworthy 4.42 BB/9. His traditional numbers were solid, but more advanced metrics foretold dark days; the aforementioned numbers and a BABIP hovering around .220 spelled doom, or at least a considerable regression.

Eight starts is still a pretty small sample size, but even taken with a grain of salt, Happ’s improvement is notable. In those 58 innings, or almost exactly half his season total, Happ has cut his homer rate in half, shaved three walks per game off his average and upped his strikeout rate for good measure. This has helped him avoid a regression as his BABIP has begun to normalize. Whereas luck had been on his side for most of the season, the start against the Cardinals was at the other end of the spectrum- he gave up 10 hits, many of them of the bloop variety, in his first loss of the season. While both the BABIP and his strand rate are still likely unsustainable, his improved command should continue to help him weather the storm, so to speak.

Right now, the rotation is Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, Moyer and Happ. Rodrigo Lopez came on in relief of Moyer in last night’s loss to the Rockies, and though he pitched relatively well in his five starts, he was always going to be the first casualty of any roster adjustments. He may find a spot in the bullpen, but it’ll get crowded down there as the banged-up relief corps gets healthy. If Lopez is designated for assignment, don’t expect him to make it through waivers.

That’s a nice rotation. Lee looked fantastic in his Phils debut last week, Blanton’s been straight money for two months (not to toot my own horn, but I told you so), Hamels will be fine and Moyer’s been pitching better lately, last night’s clunker notwithstanding. Four lefties…eh. It ain’t exactly conventional, but it’s better than having John Ennis start for you in a pennant race. Besides, as this article shows, it’s not that big a deal.

Enter the monkey wrench known as Pedro Martinez. The Phillies signed him last month as an insurance policy and/or an attempt to catch lightning in a bottle. For $1 million, it was a savvy pickup by Amaro, especially when you consider that Martinez is willing to pitch out of the bullpen. There are incentives in his contract for both starting and relieving, and it’s not a stretch to imagine him being useful in either role.

While Happ was mowing down hitters at Citizens Bank Park, Martinez was pitching well an hour north for Double-A Reading in what could be his final rehab start. He surrendered three runs on five hits in six innings to the Yankees’ Trenton affiliate, but also struck out 11, including nine in the first four frames, and didn’t walk a batter. His command was spot on- he threw first-pitch strikes to 18 of the 23 batters he faced and threw 60 of his 82 pitches for strikes- and he looked “overall…free and easy,” according to an Associated Press report. While Martinez has allowed seven earned runs in just 12 1/3 innings, they’ve come on only nine hits.

So, what do we know? Lee, Hamels and Blanton (2.33 ERA since May 21, FYI) aren’t going anywhere. Those three are also locks for the playoff rotation, barring injury and/or a Mets-like collapse. That leaves Happ, Moyer and Martinez playing musical chairs with only two seats.

I’ve seen two camps when it comes to Moyer. The first, which constitutes a majority of Phillies fans I’ve talked to, are hellbent on kicking Moyer out of the rotation. The second is a vocal minority, pointing out that he’s been solid since his nightmare start to the year. For what it’s worth, Moyer’s put up a respectable 4.31 ERA and 1.30 WHIP since his four-game losing streak in May. But he has to be considered the weak link in the rotation right now, if only because games like last night’s are all too frequent for him. It was the 10th time in 21 starts that he’s given up four or more runs in five innings or less, and four of those have come in his last seven games.

So it’s settled, then. Slide Pedro into Moyer’s slot and everyone lives happily ever after. Why did I just spend a thousand words on this again?

Oh, right. Because it’s not that simple. The ostensible motivation for moving Happ back to the bullpen, beyond fear of non-traditional thinking, is that Happ has proven he can succeed as a reliever. Moyer, in his 127-year career, has made a grand total of 53 relief appearances. The last time he came into a game after it had started, Bill Clinton was in the White House and people still cared about Beanie Babies. Besides, have you ever tried asking an old person to change something? They don’t take too kindly to it. Plus, what happens if a game goes to extra innings? By then, Moyer will have had his warm glass of milk and passed out.

Seriously though, a switch to reliever probably wouldn’t go too well for reasons beyond his age. There simply isn’t much of a role for soft-tossers in the bullpen. The article I referenced earlier about having a lefty-heavy rotation shows that Moyer doesn’t really have a traditional platoon split, so using him as a LOOGY is out. Demoting Moyer to the bullpen now would also basically guarantee that he’d be left out of the playoff rotation, and very possibly off the roster altogether. As far as non-baseball considerations go, the organization might be a little hesitant to issue what is essentially an ultimatum to Moyer. He was a key cog in last season’s championship run, even if his playoff performances weren’t so hot, and you have to respect the man for pitching this long. Finally, he looks a lot like William Russ, who played the coolest dad in television history on Boy Meets World. Would you want to be the one to upset Mr. Matthews? Of course not.

Ultimately, I think the right move is leaving the rotation as is and putting Pedro in the ‘pen. Again, the southpaw volume is not a tremendous concern, but Martinez’s stamina is. He’s been a six-inning pitcher for several years now, and given that he hasn’t thrown a meaningful pitch since the World Baseball Classic, there’s no telling how effective he’d actually be in a starting role. Still, if his velocity is there, he could flourish in the middle innings or as a long reliever. The question remains what the team will do with Moyer once the playoffs begin, but there’s a lot of baseball left to be played before we can answer that.

UPDATE: Amaro announced Thursday morning that Happ will keep his job. He hinted at the use of a six-man rotation, but I’m not certain that’s the best option. If Moyer’s the odd man out, he could be outright released; with $6.5 million owed to him next season, it’s almost certain there’s no trade market for him. I think he’d go to the bullpen if asked, but that’s not really the issue here.

I suppose you have a few questions for me. Or maybe you don’t. But I’m going to answer them anyway.

Who the hell are you, anyway?

Name’s Kyle, and I’ll thank you not to curse at me. I am a young, extremely dashing and handsome man, born and raised in the Philadelphia area, who may or may not be clinically obsessed with the Phillies. Immediately after they won Game 4 of the World Series last fall, I booked a flight home from Pittsburgh, where I was attending college, to ensure that I’d be in town for the celebration. The weather was, as you’ll recall, uncooperative that week. Undaunted, I remained home, putting my impeccable academic record at risk. The weather lost the battle of wills and I was among the thousands celebrating in the streets of South Philly after the win. All told, I missed three days of classes and spent about 500 dollars. I regret absolutely nothing.

Why are you writing this blog?

Apart from the aforementioned obsession, I have a degree in English Writing from the University of Pittsburgh. It’s not really useful for getting a job, but it did help me become better at the only thing I’ve been passionate about my entire life besides the Phillies…writing, obviously. I also used to write for an e-zine called TOTK.com Sports, and actually worked as editor-in-chief for two years before I stepped down. Unfortunately, the site is no longer online, but you can access some of the archives via the Internet Wayback Machine. I was there from April 2002- May 2008 and mainly covered MLB and the NHL. My claim to fame is this article, which was quoted by Bill Conlin in a Philadelphia Daily News article in May 2005. This was when I was 17 and before I knew that Conlin is a pretty crappy sportswriter, so you can imagine how exciting this was. I also wrote for a site called BaseballBias for a brief period in the spring of 2006, but the site folded due to lack of contibutor participation.

What is your favorite blog?

Easily, the dearly departed Fire Joe Morgan. Unfortunately, I discovered it just after it was discontinued, but it’s right up my alley: smart, funny, objective and completely intolerant of shoddy writing or stupid reasoning. I’ll probably cop their style and format for posts here every so often. As the saying goes, “Good writers borrow. Great writers steal.”

Where do you go to talk about the Phils?

ProSportsDaily has the best Phillies forum on the Web, without a doubt. I first found the site three years ago while jonesing for rumors around the deadline, but I didn’t join the forums until the summer of 2007. The guys over there were no small part of why the stretch run that season was the most fun experience I’ve ever had as a sports fan. Several posters on that forum also helped open my eyes to the world of objective analysis, or sabermetrics. In case you’re wondering, yes, they will be a significant aspect of my blogging. If the idea of nerds living in their mothers’ basements running simulations instead of “just enjoying the game” irritates you, you should probably not bother reading this blog. Also, you should probably try to find something stronger than inaccurate stereotypes as a counterargument to these newfangled nerd numbers.

When can we expect updates/posts?

I’ll likely be posting every day, even multiple times. I have a ton of ideas as to what I’d like to discuss here. I’m not sure how much simple game recapping I’ll be doing. You can get that in a billion places. I’m more interested in, for example, discussing potential roster moves, the future of the team, current performance trends and so on. I will also, as I said, probably see some pretty terrible articles and columns about the Phillies that I feel the need to completely rip apart. Those should be fun.

How can we contact you?

I’ll be setting up an e-mail account for the blog in the near future, as well possibly a Facebook page and even (shudder) maybe a Twitter. In the meantime, just leave a comment here, I guess.

I’ll be making the site look nicer and adding different features and junk as I get used to WordPress. I look forward to your hate mail and/or willful ignorance!